Two Atlantic disturbances have a good chance of developing

Updated at 8:30 a.m. EDT

Tropical Riot #1 it has an elongated oval-shaped circulation with a robust cluster of thunderstorms at each end of the oval. Upper-level winds are conducive to development, and the ocean water under the disturbance is quite warm. On the downside, plenty of dry air blankets that part of the Atlantic. That and the oblong circulation will limit how quickly the system can organize itself.

The oval shape of the system is inherited from its origin. This combined disturbance formed from a disturbance that moved away from Africa and drew an area of ​​altered climate to the south into its orbit. Now those two original systems are fighting for dominance and slowing down the development of an organized tropical system.

The strong consensus from computer forecast models is that the system will develop into a tropical depression or tropical storm in the open ocean north of Puerto Rico and east of the Bahamas. The open question is, where will the consolidated circulation form, assuming the models are correct?


If the southern group of storms ends up dominating and a final circulation forms around it, the track could be much closer to the northeastern Caribbean islands than if a more northerly part of the system wins the consolidation contest.

For now, nothing moves fast. The system is not expected to be near the islands until later in the week. As we have seen, forecasts for disorganized or developing systems are subject to much larger errors than those for hurricanes. So everyone on the islands needs to stay in the loop until we see how and where the system consolidates if it does.

On the other side of the Atlantic, Tropical Riot #2 He has moved from Africa. Directional currents are expected to turn the system to the north quite rapidly. It has only a short window of opportunity to organize into a tropical depression or tropical storm before it reaches cooler waters. It is not a threat to the earth.

The potential system that had a chance to develop in the far western Caribbean is expected to move through Central America like a surge of moisture. The area of ​​low pressure that extends from the Caribbean to the Pacific was a component of the possible development near Yucatan. Now it looks like the consolidated system will form in the Pacific, so the potential development area is off the map.


The small non-tropical eddy we were tracking in the waters east of Bermuda no longer has a chance of tropical development.

we have to be vigilant Tropical Riot #1 just to make sure it stays north of the Caribbean islands and away from the US coast. That’s the consensus of the forecasting computer models, but the disarray and slow movement always add an extra uncertainty to the forecast.

It looks like August will end without producing named tropical systems. This is exceptionally rare and unheard of in a La Niña year when the environment over the tropical Atlantic is historically very conducive to system development. Dry air has been the culprit. Although why the dry air has persisted is an open question.

For now, we’re fine.

FOX Weather Hurricane Specialist Bryan Norcross has a podcast, Tracking the tropics with Bryan Norcrossavailable now in FOX News Audio. You can get it on your device by by clicking here.

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