Tropical Storm Earl will remain near Puerto Rico and nearby islands through the weekend

Updated at 9 am ET: The disturbance we have been tracking across the Atlantic has finally acquired enough circulation to be designated tropical storm count – although it is a very disorganized tropical storm. Upper-level winds are driving thunderstorms away from the center, which is clearly exposed on the satellite.

Because the system has a well-defined circulation and persistent thunderstorms with winds measured at 40 mph, it meets the definition of a tropical storm. As long as you keep this structure off-center with dry air involved in the circulation, only a slow, if any, intensification is forecast.


Steering currents are forecast to weaken significantly over the next two days, so Earl is expected to remain over ocean waters north of Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands and nearby islands through the weekend at least. .

In a couple of days, a downturn in the jet stream is forecast to move away from the northeast coast of the US. This system should be strong enough to pick up Earl and carry him away from the islands to the north at the latest. Monday or Tuesday time.

All of this should work, as long as Earl stays strong enough to be caught by the jet stream. If it were to weaken over the next two days, its movement would be slower and less predictable.

With Earl nearby, his moisture envelope, including his moisture tail, will remain over the northeastern Caribbean islands. Some heavy tropical downpours can be expected which could cause landslides in vulnerable areas, especially on mountainous islands. Pay attention to local advisories.

In the North Atlantic, Daniela it weakened slightly and is now at tropical storm strength. It’s been sitting in essentially the same place for a while, so it’s possible it stirred up some cold water below the ocean’s surface.


In the next few days, the high pressure lock system that has been holding Danielle in place is expected to shift position so the storm can exit to the northeast. It will eventually be absorbed by another weather system moving across the distant North Atlantic.

Looking out over the tropical Atlantic, long-range computer forecast models indicate that more disturbances will move away from Africa next week and beyond, as is to be expected at this time of year. But none appear to be a threat for the foreseeable future.

FOX Weather Hurricane Specialist Bryan Norcross has a podcast, Tracking the Tropics with Bryan Norcross, available now at FOX News Audio. You can get it on your device by by clicking here.

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