sad with more rain around the corner

Many locations along and north of I-10 received more than 4 inches of rain Sunday. A break from substantial precipitation is expected through Wednesday, but it will remain bleak.

A DENSE FOG WARNING is in effect for coastal areas through Tuesday morning. Visibility of a quarter mile or less could make driving difficult.

Tonight and tomorrow: The night will be cloudy with patchy dense fog, especially near rivers, swamps and lakes. Low temperatures will stop near 60 degrees in the city with low 50s to the north and upper 60s to the south. There will be fog on Tuesday rising to low cloud cover with few breaks in the sun. There may be a stray rain, but most areas will remain dry again. High temperatures will have a wide range with upper 60s in Baton Rouge, low 60s in southwestern Mississippi, and upper 70s near the coast.

Until next time: A stalled front will remain across the region through Wednesday, continuing morning fog, cloudy skies, and a wide range of north-south temperatures. Still, most places will avoid significant rain except for some organized showers north and west of Baton Rouge. By Thursday, the front will begin to move through the area from northwest to southeast with another period of rain and thunderstorms. Additional 1 to 2 inches of rain is expected north and west of Baton Rouge. Typically lighter amounts will fall to the south and east. Although less than Sunday, since the ground is saturated and rivers are elevated, any heavier bags will need to be monitored for standing water issues and minor stream flooding. On Friday, the front will continue to move across the area with skies gradually clearing and cooler, drier air. As the sun returns, the highs will stop in the upper 50s followed by an overnight low in the upper 30s.


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Detailed forecast: The setting for fog is quite favorable with warm, muggy air moving over relatively cooler sea areas. Adding yesterday’s rain and saturated soil provides enough moisture for rapid overnight fog formation, especially near coastal areas. Northwest of Baton Rouge and a standing front, slightly cooler, drier air should reduce fog.

The temperature forecast for the next two days is complicated. Wherever the near-stationary front resides, it will denote the line separating the highs in the northern 50s and the highs in the southern 70s. Within a few miles of the limit, temperatures will hover in the 60s. Just a 20-30 mile shift in front could shift temperatures by 10 degrees, so especially in the I-10/12 corridor, be prepared for sharp adjustments in the temperature forecast. No organized showers are expected until Wednesday morning. Even into the afternoon hours, a weak upper level disturbance will occur, but it is unlikely to create anything more than scattered showers north and west of Baton Rouge. An upper level trough of low pressure will move across the southern third of the United States on Thursday providing the necessary momentum to drive the front fully to the east of the area. In response to this step, another round of rains and electrical storms is expected, although of lesser magnitude than the one that occurred on Sunday. Still, since the grounds are saturated and the rivers are a little high, any pockets higher than the forecast inch or two could cause some annoying flooding issues and minor increases in current. Those peak amounts are likely to occur northwest of the city and where the heaviest rains fell on Sunday, which would be good news. However, any changes to the south will be worth monitoring.

Everything will start to calm down on Friday with cooler, drier air over the weekend. After a day of below-average temperatures Friday and Friday night, above-average temperatures are expected through the weekend.

–Josh

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