The New York Yankees host the San Diego Padres in a rare meeting between the two clubs. Time to continue our MLB odds series with a Padres-Yankees prediction and pick.
The Padres and Yankees “almost” met in the World Series last season, but both teams lost in their respective Conference Series. The only time the Padres made it to the Fall Classic was against a Yankees team that won 125 regular season games that year in 1998. The Yankees swept Tony Gwynn and the Padres in four games.
Fast forward to today, and the Yankees are still one of the best teams in baseball. As for San Diego, they’ve shown flashes of stardom, but have yet to stay consistent enough to be considered elite. With the second highest payroll in the game, you’re expected to be good. However, SD is fair (23-27) on the season and has won just one series in the month of May. It’s still early days, but if the Friars don’t start winning now, they’ll fall completely out of a playoff spot.
New York is (30-22) on the season and is coming off a series loss to the Baltimore Orioles. The AL East Division is clearly the best in baseball, as every team is in a dogfight every game. The Yankees are third in the division, as the Orioles and Tampa Bay Rays have dominated early in the season.
Here are the MLB Padres-Yankees odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
MLB odds: Padres-Yankees odds
San Diego Padres: -1.5 (+140)
New York Yankees: +1.5 (-170)
More: 9 (-118)
Minus: 9 (-104)
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Time: 7:05 ET/4:05 PT
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Why the Padres could cover the spread
The Padres’ starter is right-hander Joe Musgrove. Musgrove suffered a broken foot before spring training and still hasn’t pitched well this season because of it. He may be healthy now, but in five starts, he hasn’t pitched like he did last season. His ERA is up to 6.75 and he has allowed six long balls this year. He allowed four runs to the Boston Red Sox in his last start. To make matters worse, the Padres have scored a combined six runs in their last three starts. Musgrove will give them at least five innings, but if the offense doesn’t respond, it won’t matter how the right-hander performs.
Juan Soto is finally starting to show that the Padres had a reason to go out and trade him for him last summer. He is hitting .300 on the road this season and in the last 30 days of it he is hitting .333 with a 1.107 OPS. The lefty has drawn 26 walks in that span. Last night in Washington DC, Soto finished 1-1 with four walks and two runs scored. I wish the rest of the lineup could expand from that.
Manny Machado remains out for the Padres with a slightly broken hand, but should be back in the next week or two. Ha-Seong Kim broke a ball on his kneecap in yesterday’s contest and should miss tonight’s action. A name not many would expect to hear right now is Rougned Odor. Odor won the game for the Padres last night with a go-ahead, three-run homer to right field with two outs in the ninth. In his last seven games, he is 7-16 with three doubles, two home runs, 11 RBIs and a 1.471 OPS.
Why the Yankees could cover the spread
Starting off for the Yankees tonight will be Randy Vásquez making his MLB debut. This is a good time to debut, as the Padres don’t usually play well against rookie pitching in this situation. In 2021, Tyler Gilbert debuted for the Arizona Diamondbacks against the Padres and threw a no-hitter in a 7-0 win. I’m not saying Vasquez will have that kind of success tonight, but there’s a good chance he’ll blow them out for a few innings. Vasquez is (1-5) on the season with a 4.85 ERA in 42.2 innings. He has 50 strikeouts and a 1.57 WHIP. His career MiLB average is 3.31 with 381 strikeouts in 77 games.
The Yankees’ offensive run production is still getting the job done despite not winning the last series. They swept the Cincinnati Reds before that and scored a combined 17 runs in three games. However, NY is 23rd in batting average at .235 and the Padres 29th at .224. It’s strange to see these two teams not get on base as much as we all hope. If Aaron Judge, Gleyber Torres, Anthony Rizzo and Anthony Volpe are hitting in this series, then they shouldn’t have a problem against the Padres.
Padres-Yankees final pick and prediction
I’m surprised the Padres are the favorites in this game even with a rookie making his Yankees debut at home. Take the ‘Yanks to cover this spread at home.
Padres-Yankees final pick and prediction: Yankees +1.5 (-170)
