NFL Odds Week 3: How to Bet Steelers-Browns

One of the longest AFC rivalries in the NFL resumes on Thursday when the cleveland browns be the host of the pittsburgh steelmen in a division matchup.

Pittsburgh leads the all-time series 79-61-1, winning four of the last six contests.

Here’s everything you need from a betting perspective for the Steelers-Browns game, from point spread, moneyline, over/under total and expert selection (odds via FOX Bet):

Baker Mayfield, Panthers fall short in Week 2 loss to Giants | INDISPUTABLE

Baker Mayfield, Panthers fall short in Week 2 loss to Giants |  INDISPUTABLE

Baker Mayfield will have to wait another week for his first win as the Carolina Panther.

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Steelers @ Browns (8:20 p.m. ET Thursday, Amazon Prime)

Point difference: Browns -4.5 (Browns is favorite to win by 4.5+ points, otherwise Steelers cover)
money line: Browns -213 favorites to win (bet $10 to win a total of $14.69); Steelers +160 underdogs to win (bet $10 to win $26 total)
Total score over/under: 38.5 points scored by both teams combined

The Steelers have dominated the series since the days of the “Iron Curtain” defense in the 1970s. Pittsburgh is 28-6-1 in the last 35 games against Cleveland.

The Steelers are 6-3 in a straight line (SU) in their last nine games played in September. The Steelers are 5-1 against the spread (ATS) in their last six games against Cleveland and have hit the low on the over/under four times in their last five games.

The Browns are 5-13 SU in their last 18 Week 3 matchups. The Browns are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games against AFC teams. The Browns have fallen behind in the O/U in seven of their last nine home games against the Steelers.

FOX Sports Betting Analyst Pick Geoff Schwartz:

This is holding your nose and gambling on a reliable coaching job because Pittsburgh’s offense is rotten. Take a look at these ranks: 30th in yards per play, 28th in passing and 19th in red zone scoring. It’s hard to write about anything they do well at the moment. Offensive design is boring, uncreative, and predictable.

On top of that, the Steelers have a short week. I don’t expect their offense to go very far.

However, the Browns are not reliable to cover four points at this point. Yes, they run the ball well, but they face a Steelers defense that can contain the run.

Of course, the loss of TJ Watt has affected the Steelers’ run defense, especially pass rush. The lack of pressure should give Jacoby Brissett time to pass, but do you trust him to pass the ball well against this Steelers defense? I do not.

The only way I feel comfortable in this matchup is to bet on what I know.

First, Cleveland struggles in division play.

Second, Steelers coach Mike Tomlin always has his teams ready for this situation. Overall, Tomlin’s Steelers are 67% against the differential as an underdog and 70% against the differential as an underdog with a straight loss. His ability to motivate like an underdog is unparalleled.

If you’re still not comfortable with all four points, you can put the Steelers on an advance with another team this weekend for an extra cushion.

TO CHOOSE: Steelers (+4 on FOX Bet at pick time) lose by less than 4 points (or win outright)

Are you ready for the NFL season? If so, head over to FOX Bet for all your bets.

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