An NFC South matchup in Week 3 of 2022 NFL season.
The New Orleans Saints travel to North Carolina to face the Carolina Panthers on Sunday at 1 pm ET at Bank of America Stadium.
The Panthers enter this game winless after another painful loss, this time to the New York Giants. While the defense held Saquon Barkely to 72 yards and sacked Daniel Jones three times, the offense was stagnant. Baker Mayfield completed 14 of 29 throws for 145 yards and a touchdown, and the Panthers’ offense converted only two of 12 third downs. For this team to get anywhere, Mayfield will need to produce.
The New Orleans Saints are 1-1 after a 20-10 loss to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in Week 2. Jameis Winston threw three interceptions in the fourth quarter and that’s all he wrote. Winston continues to go for the big play over the short, easy routes, and as he progresses, so do the Saints. Hopefully this weekend one of these quarterbacks can produce four complete quarters.
Here’s everything you need from a betting perspective for the Saints-Panthers game, from point spread, money line, total over/under and expert perspective (Odds via FOX Bet):
RELATED: Week 3 lines, odds
Saints @ panthers (1 p.m. ET, Sunday, FOX)
Point difference: New Orleans -3 (Saints is favorite to win by more than 3 points, otherwise Panthers cover)
money line: New Orleans -162 favorites to win (bet $10 to win a total of $16.17); Panthers +125 underdogs to win (bet $10 to win $22.50 total)
Total score over/under: 40.5 points scored by both teams combined
Baker’s Panthers start the season 0-2, is it time to panic? | THE CARDBOARD SAMPLE
There were high expectations for various NFL teams for the start of the season, but one thing many didn’t expect was the Carolina Panthers going 0-2 at the end of Week 2.
Warren Sharp, sports betting analyst at FOX:
Baker Mayfield has been bombed on 33% of his first downs in the first three quarters, the fourth-highest bombing rate in the NFL this year.
And it receives pressure in the tenth highest rate (36%).
On the first few tries, when Mayfield is bombed, it ranks 20th in EPA/att (-0.09).
But when not bombarded, it ranks 11th in EPA/att (+0.11).
And Baker has long had massive divisions in the face of pressure and without pressure. From 2020:
Pressure vs: -0.62 EPA/att, 25% success, 5.8 YPA
No Pressure: +0.27 EPA/att, 51% success, 7.6 YPA
Unlike in years past, this Saints defense just isn’t getting pressure. They are not bombing either.
New Orleans is racking up just 8% of QB drops, which ranks 30th.
And they’re getting pressured at a rate of 9.9%, which ranks last in the NFL (average = 30%).
Last week, the Bucs played without multiple offensive line starters and multiple starting receivers. And the Saints, playing at home, still had the lowest pressure in the NFL.
If this holds up and the Saints struggle to pressure Mayfield and bomb as little as they have, it will be a big change for Mayfield.
In Week 1, Mayfield played his old team, the Browns.
They are ranked #6 in pressure rate this season, registering pressure on 36% of opponents’ pullbacks, and have a league average blitz rate.
In week 2, Mayfield played the Giants.
They are ranked No. 5 in blitz rate this season (37%) and are logging pressure at a rate of 27%.
Mayfield has been bombarded and pressed hard in his first two games with the Panthers.
Now, are you playing at home against a team with the No. 32 pressure rate and the No. 30 blitz rate?
Certainly, this is not an easy defense to face, but there is a way to imagine that Mayfield can perform a little better without pressure. And if he doesn’t and he struggles once again, the Panthers will get the Cardinals’ No. 31 defense next week in what should be his last chance to deliver for the Panthers or he’ll probably cost Matt Rhule his job because the next three games will include the Bucs, Rams and 49ers.
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