the buffalo bills hit the road to face the miami dolphins in week 3 of NFL season.
Buffalo and Miami are coming off polar opposite wins in Week 2. The Bills dismantled the Tennessee Titans, 41-7, while the Dolphins overcame a 21-point fourth-quarter deficit to beat the Baltimore Ravens, 42-38.
Which 2-0 team will remain undefeated after their rivalry matchup in the AFC East?
Here’s everything you need from a betting perspective for the Bills-Dolphins game, from point spread, money line, total over/under, and expert pick (Odds via FOX Bet):
RELATED: The best plays of week 2 of the NFL season
Bills @ dolphins (1 p.m. ET, Sunday, CBS)
Point difference: Bills -5.5 (Bills is the 5.5+ point favorite to win, otherwise Dolphins cover)
money line: Bills -227 to win favorites to win (bet $10 to win a total of $14.41); Dolphins +175 underdogs to win (bet $10 to win $27.50 total)
Total score over/under: 53.5 points scored by both teams combined
Buffalo and Miami are 2-0 against the spread (ATS) and 2-0 outright (SU) this season; the Bills won and covered as favorites against the Titans last week, while the Dolphins won as underdogs against the Ravens last week. Both teams have shared the O/U this season (1-1).
The Bills are 6-3-1 ATS and 9-1 SU against the Dolphins under head coach Sean McDermott (since 2017), over-batting in five of those games (one shove). The Dolphins, meanwhile, are 16-8-1 ATS and 14-11 SU vs AFC East opponents since 2018, with the underdog batting in 15 of those games.
FOX Sports Betting Analyst Pick sharp warren:
The Bills’ defense ranks first in the NFL, but look who they’ve faced. Two teams with below-average offenses (No. 20 Rams, No. 29 Titans).
More importantly, none of these offenses have multiple receiving threats like the Dolphins have now.
The Rams have Cooper Kupp, and that’s it, at least until they find a way to get Allen Robinson more involved.
Kupp caught 13 of 15 targets for 128 yards and 1 TD, burning down the Bills’ secondary. But the Rams have no one closer to his prowess.
His No. 2 target was a tight end (Higbee) who had caught just 5 of 11 targets. His number 3 target was a runner.
And their quarterback was recovering from an elbow injury to his throwing arm this offseason, and his head coach decided to call an obscenely run-heavy game at first down. The runs did absolutely nothing more than set the Rams up for second-and-third-and-long situations.
Last week, the Bills shut down the Titans, who have an even worse receiver situation than the Rams.
His number one target in the game was a rookie playing his second NFL game (Treylon Burks). The Titans lost all their receiving power by getting rid of AJ Brown and Julio Jones. And when this team falls behind and can’t execute Derrick Henry, they’re doomed.
And now, the Bills are even more banged up in the secondary.
Buffalo no longer has CB1 Tre’Davious White for at least the first four weeks of the season.
Starting cornerback Dane Jackson was strapped to a backboard Monday night with a terrifying injury, pulled out and taken to the hospital after lying motionless on the field. He has been released from the hospital but suffered a brutal head and neck injury.
Starting safety Micah Hyde suffered a neck injury, was left on the ground, was taken to the blue medical tent and then taken to the locker room. It was later revealed that Hyde was also sent to the hospital to have his neck injury evaluated and was later released.
To combat this Dolphins offense, the Bills may need to get past them.
Fortunately, they’ve been good at doing that against the Dolphins.
In their last seven games against the Dolphins, the Bills have scored a whopping 26 points and are averaging 37 points per game.
Five of these seven games have been completed, including five of six when Tua was injury-free.
Miami is 0-7 in these games and just 2-5 ATS.
Buffalo has scored and scored at will.
And part of that is just the defense that the Dolphins play.
Miami is by far the number one most manned team in the NFL. Plain and simple, Finns love to play man.
Last year they were the only team to play men in more than 40% of their snaps, and they did so at a rate of 46%.
So far this year, they are No. 3 in the NFL.
But even worse for them is how much they love to bomb.
On first downs in the first three quarters, Miami bombs the highest No. 2 of any defense.
But they get pressure at the second-lowest rate of any defense.
That’s a dangerous combination and it’s a big reason why this defense is the second worst pass defense this year, and that includes a game against Mac Jones.
Miami has allowed a league-high 12.2 yards per completion so far this year. He has been a lousy pass defense. And an unsuitable one to face Josh Allen.
Against this year’s blitz, Josh Allen ranks:
No. 1 in sack/INT rate
No. 2 in first casualty rate
No. 3 in TDs thrown
No. 4 in success rate
No. 5 in YPA
No. 6 in EPA/att
Josh Allen also ranks in the top 10 against male coverage.
The bottom line is that what Miami wants to do defensively just doesn’t work against Josh Allen.
TO CHOOSE: Over 52.5 total points scored by both teams combined on FOX Bet
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