There is no market to bet on like the NFL MVP race.
Aaron Rodgers has won consecutive MVP awards, despite not entering the year as the favorite in either season. Prior to that, Patrick Mahomes of the Kansas City Chiefs and Lamar Jackson of the Baltimore Ravens each won an MVP award during their first full season as starters with their respective teams.
It really is a fun way to get in on the action of the NFL season, and this year’s MVP race looks to be extremely entertaining. Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen enters as the preseason favorite priced at +700 at Caesars Sportsbook, which is the official betting partner of Bet Chicago Sports.
Four of the biggest names in the league are right behind Allen at odds of 10/1 or better to win the top individual prize this upcoming NFL season. Mahomes is +800, while Justin Herbert and Tom Brady are listed at +900. Rodgers is worth +1000 to win MVP for the third year in a row.
Let’s dive into everything you need to know before betting on this market:
Recent NFL MVP Winners
Like most of these prize markets, it is entirely narrative driven. The writers who vote for this are human, so there is a formula for winning MVP. As long as he’s a quarterback on an elite team, he can be considered. Someone else? Better luck next time.
A non-quarterback hasn’t won the award since 2012, when Minnesota running back Adrian Peterson accomplished the feat. A quarterback has won MVP nine straight years since then, and there’s no reason to expect that to change in 2022. Cooper Kupp had a historic season for a receiver last season, managing to receive just one MVP vote.
Also, a quarterback has to be on a winning team to be in the mix. Seven of the last nine winners were on teams that finished as the top seeds in their respective conferences. The other two MVP winners were on teams that claimed a No. 2 seed, which would have been good enough for a bye at the time before the league switched to a 14-team playoff.
| Year | MVP winner | Equipment | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | Aaron Rogers | packers | 13-4 (1 seed) |
| 2020 | Aaron Rogers | packers | 13-3 (1 seed) |
| 2019 | lamar jackson | ravens | 14-2 (1 seed) |
| 2018 | patrick mahomes | bosses | 12-4 (1 seed) |
| 2017 | Tom Brady | patriots | 13-3 (1 seed) |
| 2016 | matt ryan | hawks | 11-5 (2 seeds) |
| 2015 | cam newton | panthers | 15-1 (1 seed) |
| 2014 | Aaron Rogers | packers | 12-4 (2 seeds) |
| 2013 | Peyton Manning | broncos | 13-3 (1 seed) |
How to bet on the MVP market
In my opinion, there is no reason to be in a hurry to bet on this market. Think about how quickly the narratives of some of the best quarterbacks in the league change after a bad game. This market will be in constant flux throughout the year, creating many opportunities to buy low on talented signal callers.
For example, Kyler Murray was the favorite for MVP in the first half of the 2021 season, while Rodgers started the season with a 38-3 loss to the New Orleans Saints in Week 1. Russell Wilson looked like the early favorite. in the second half of the season. -years ago during 2019 and 2020. Wilson ultimately didn’t receive a single vote, losing the award to Patrick Mahomes and Lamar Jackson in their respective seasons.
Identify the players you want to bet on for MVP, then wait for your chance to get a better price. To me, Mahomes is always a player I will consider betting on, as he is the best quarterback on the planet. Joe Burrow is sixth at odds at +1300, but I wouldn’t be surprised if he is better priced at some point this season.
The offseason is the time to take your chances with long-shot bets, including a number of second-year quarterbacks who offer an intriguing edge. But he must look for better candidates when the market finally gets too tight during the regular season.
NFL MVP Betting Odds
2022 NFL MVP Betting Odds provided by Caesars Sportsbook:
• Josh Allen, Buffalo Bills: +700
• Patrick Mahomes, Kansas City Chiefs: +800
• Justin Herbert, Los Angeles Chargers: +900
• Tom Brady, Tampa Bay Buccaneers: +900
• Aaron Rodgers, Green Bay Packers: +1,000
• Joe Burrow, Cincinnati Bengals: +1,300
• Russell Wilson, Denver Broncos: +1,600
• Matthew Stafford, Los Angeles Rams: +1600
• Dak Prescott, Dallas Cowboys: +1700
• Lamar Jackson, Baltimore Ravens: +2,000
• Kyler Murray, Arizona Cardinals: +2,200
• Deshaun Watson, Cleveland Browns: +3,000
• Jalen Hurts, Philadelphia Eagles: +3,000
• Trey Lance, San Francisco 49ers: +3,000
• Derek Carr, Las Vegas Raiders: +3,000
• Tua Tagovailoa, Miami Dolphins: +5,000
• Derrick Henry, Tennessee Titans: +5,000
• Matt Ryan, Indianapolis Colts: +5,000
• Kirk Cousins, Minnesota Vikings: +6,000
• Jameis Winston, New Orleans Saints: +7,500
• Cooper Kupp, Los Angeles Rams: +7,500
• Mac Jones, New England Patriots: +7,500
• All other selections are 100/1 or more
