Excluding SEC championship games, Alabama hasn’t been a single-digit favorite in the regular season since Oct. 17, 2020, when it beat Georgia 17 as a six-point home favorite.
I’m going to go out on a limb and say that Alabama will be good again in 2022, so let’s take a look at some of the futures options for the Crimson Tide this year and if they have any bet value.
All odds taken Monday from DraftKings Sportsbook.
Alabama over 10.5 wins -300
Alabama under 10.5 wins +235
How can you consider the bass here? The Crimson Tide failed to eclipse 10 wins last in 2010, and there may not be a team on this year’s 12-game schedule that Alabama needs to scare, let alone two teams, at least until a supposed rematch. of the SEC championship game with Georgia. You’re paying strong juice at the top, but I’m not going anywhere near the bottom. Take over or pass.
SEC Championship Game Winner
Crimson Tide’s closest, and only, competitor on the odds board in this category is Georgia at +155; all other SEC teams are at least +1800. Using Bill Connelly’s preseason SP+ ratings, the Crimson Tide would be a 1.3-point favorite over the Bulldogs on a neutral field (like, say, in the SEC championship game), which should make Alabama about – 115 on the money line. So the -145 doesn’t present much value, if you believe (like me and the oddsmakers) that the Tide and Dawgs are clearly the SEC class and destined to meet in the conference championship game. Happen.
The College Football Playoff is entering its ninth season, and Alabama has been involved in all but one previous version (2019). Until Saban stops drawing five-star draftees and Alabama stops winning more than 11 games a season, “yes” is pretty much a bet you have to make, no matter the game, particularly this year, with the defending Heisman Trophy winner as quarterback and the fifth-place Heisman vote winner leads the defense (see below).
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DraftKings has assigned Heisman Trophy odds to four Alabama players.
QB Bryce Young +400
Young will try to accomplish something that has only been done once in college football history: repeat as a Heisman Trophy winner. Ohio State’s Archie Griffin is the only player to do that, in 1974 and 1975. Since then, 21 non-major players have won the award. Just over half of those players (12 of 21) went on to play professional football after their Heisman win, and of the nine who returned to college, only one (Billy Sims in 1979) finished second in next season’s Heisman voting. . Four of the nine defending Heisman winners finished third, one finished fifth, one finished sixth, and two did not receive any votes in the season voting following their Heisman victory.
So another Heisman is a tall order, and while Young has what could be a fantastic offensive line in front of him, his receivers are unproven — tight end Cameron Latu is the only Crimson Tide wide receiver who was targeted more than 30 times. . last season. With the second-best odds on the Heisman board, I’ll pass on Young.
LB Will Anderson Jr. +1600
Now, here’s a Heisman candidate from Alabama that I can endorse with very good odds. Anderson, who finished fifth in the voting last year, had a national best with 33.5 tackles for a loss (11.5 more than his closest competitor) and 17.5 sacks. When he wasn’t terrorizing the backfield, he covered passes 58 times and allowed 16 passing yards when quarterbacks threw to the player he was covering. That’s pure dominance, and the fact that three defensive players were in the top 10 who garnered Heisman votes last season could be a sign we’re ready for someone to join Charles Woodson (1997) as the only players defensive in winning the award.
Gibbs was one of the few bright spots offensively for a Georgia Tech team that went 3-9 last season, averaging 5.2 yards per carry as the Yellow Jackets’ primary running back, catching 35 passes, averaging 25.6 yards per kickoff return and scoring seven times. . That kind of all-around production could get a lot of attention now that Gibbs has transferred to the nation’s highest-profile program — he was named Tide spring game MVP — but if a Heisman voter is considering someone on Alabama’s offense , probably going to be young.
McClellan was aiming for an impressive year in 2021 before suffering a season-ending injury in Game 5 for Alabama. At the time, he was tied for the team lead with five touchdowns (one rushing, three receiving, one punt return blocked). But as his Heisman odds suggest, this is the ultimate long shot, as McClellan’s chances seemingly only improve if Gibbs isn’t a factor.