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What you need to know for Wednesday’s MLB Games
By Todd Zola
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After two straight slates of all night games, day baseball returns on Wednesday with three matinees beginning with a Lone Star State battle with the Rangers hosting the Astros. Martin Perez’s team managers have a tough call as he takes the hill for the home team against a Houston lineup that fans a league-low 17.6% of the time against lefties while sporting the 10th-best wOBA. Perez’s strikeouts increased by 26.4% in his last eight starts, compared to 19.7% in his first 15 attempts. However, his walk rate in the recent stretch has nearly doubled, jumping from 6% to 11.6%. Pérez is safer in the points leagues. He is very risky in category scoring and should be avoided by those entrenched in close ratio battles. While unrelated to Wednesday’s game, Houston is likely to return to Cristian Javier’s rotation later in the week, taking the place of Justin Verlander, who is on the disabled list with a calf problem.
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Fantasy managers have another tough call with Trevor Rogers (51% on ESPN’s league list) making his first start for the Marlins since July 25. Miami hosts the Rays in another interstate affair. Before being placed on the disabled list, Rogers was one of the most disappointing pitchers of the season, posting a 5.85 ERA and a 1.60 WHIP. However, he struck out 12 with just one walk in six scoreless frames for Triple-A Jacksonville in his last rehab start. Tampa’s lineup against lefties is a bit below average for the season, though they’ve struggled a bit this month. There is risk, but despite the divergence in his numbers, Rogers is a better play than Perez. In fact, those looking to beef up his pitch should consider taking Rogers. There’s no guarantee he’ll return to his old neighborhood, but he’s excelled before and there won’t be many arms with his upper body available down the stretch.
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Sean Murphy and Shea Langeliers have been almost everyday players for the rebuilding A’s, and both are worth having in all their lineups this week against the Nationals. Video by Tristan H. Cockcroft
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While no one stands out, Marco Gonzales (49%), Jose Quintana (32%), Bailey Falter (3%), Kris Bubic (3%), James Kaprielian (3%), and Tommy Henry (2%) check in as potential streamers, though patience should provide better options later in the week. Gonzales is better for points leagues where his inning volume helps mitigate low strikeouts, though facing the Tigers should help on both counts. Quintana incurs a major park downgrade down the road from Great American Ballpark, but the Cardinals will be favored over the Reds. Falter is coming off a solid effort replacing Zack Wheeler, striking out six Pirates in six frames. Repeating the effort against the Diamondbacks in the desert will be a challenge, but Arizona’s offense is below average. The remaining three are in the “break glass in case of emergency” category, best deployed by those trying to sneak into their playoff head-to-head in the final week of the fantasy regular season.
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Wednesday marks the last day before rosters expand to 28. There was a time when teams called up top prospects, but the spots are more likely to be used to strengthen the pitch, though teams are only given will allow to carry 14 arms. The other reason few prospects will be promoted is that teams would prefer to keep their rookie status intact, so the player could get them an extra draft pick next season. As such, expect the Arizona Diamondbacks to keep Corbin Carroll’s playing time below 135 at-bats. To do so, they’re hitting him low on the order and he’ll probably sit when there’s a southpaw on the hill. In fact, the southpaw Falter will start Wednesday’s game at Arizona, so we’ll get an idea of how the Diamondbacks plan to handle Carroll. One thing to keep in mind is that Carroll was a 3-point machine in the minors and Chase Field is one of the best 3-point spots in the league.
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Albert Pujols (19%) is the leading hitter to target with a road date against Mike Minor as the slugger targets six more home runs to reach 700. Paul DeJong (3%) is also in play with the platoon hit over Minor. Oakland’s Seth Brown (10%) and Cal Stevenson (1%) are in a good position against Aníbal Sánchez. Josh Naylor (50%) enjoys a pack advantage over Jordan Lyles, while Donovan Solano (3%) and Aristides Aquino (1%) have an advantage over Quintana.
Ranking of starting pitchers for Wednesday
The best hitters under 50% of the list for Wednesday
The best and worst hitters of the day are generated by THE BAT X, a projection system created by Derek Carty that uses advanced methods like those used in MLB headquarters, accounting for a variety of factors including player talent, stadiums, bullpens, weather, umpires, defense, catcher’s throwing frame and much more.
The worst hitters with more than 50% of the list for Wednesday
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Chris Taylor (LAD, CF — 59%) at Jacob deGrom
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Cody Bellinger (LAD, CF — 90%) at deGrom
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Gavin Lux (LAD, SS — 68%) at deGrom
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Justin Turner (LAD, 3B — 90%) at deGrom
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Will Smith (LAD, C — 100%) at deGrom
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Max Muncy (LAD, 2B — 92%) at deGrom
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Mike Yastrzemski (SF, RF — 53%) vs. Joe Musgrove
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Trevor Story (BOS, SS — 94%) in Joe Ryan
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Trea Turner (LAD, SS — 100%) at deGrom
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Jake Cronenworth (SD, 2B — 98%) at Alex Wood