Look up our fantasy baseball starting pitcher rankings, hitter updates and dropoffs daily to help you make smart fantasy baseball lineup decisions and get MLB betting tips. MLB game odds are provided by Caesars Sportsbook, and fantasy tips are geared toward ESPN’s 10-team standard-scoring leagues.
Note: This file will be updated with any overnight release changes or weather-related game postponements, along with the addition of the latest MLB game odds at the stated post time.
What you need to know for Sunday’s MLB games
By Mike Leaves
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Since arriving in the majors in early May, George Kirby has posted a 3.16 ERA and 1.18 WHIP in 19 starts, including a 2.17 ERA and 1.13 WHIP in his last nine starts. He has struck out more than one batter per inning (9.4 K/9) while displaying precise control at a 1.2 BB/9 rate, leading to a 7.6 K/BB ratio that ranks second in baseball only to by Aaron Nola (min. 100 IP). Kirby has also been one of the top 15 fantasy starters over the past month, according to ESPN Player Rater. Despite all that, the 24-year-old right-hander is still available in about 45% of ESPN’s leagues. Yes, there is some risk that the Mariners will limit Kirby’s innings down the stretch, but that hasn’t happened yet. Kirby is pitching like a borderline ace right now, which makes him an obvious streaming option against a Guardians offense that has been in the bottom five in wRC+ (80) for the past month.
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After being sidelined for nearly three weeks with an oblique strain, Carlos Carrasco is set to return to the mound Sunday against the Nationals. The right-hander threw 55 pitches in a simulated game Monday, but without a rehab assignment, he may be on a pitch count in Sunday’s affair with Washington. Even against an exploitable Nationals lineup, Carrasco should be considered a risky start at DFS given workload concerns.
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Maybe it’s the sketchy injury history or the lack of swing-and-miss stuff, but Ross Stripling (34% on ESPN’s league roster) is consistently underrated in fantasy. Since June 6, the veteran right-hander has now allowed three or fewer earned runs in 13 straight starts, posting a 2.35 ERA and 0.94 WHIP during that stretch. And it’s not like he’s throwing significantly over his head, as his 2.94 ERA isn’t too far off his 3.50 xERA. He turns Stripling on as a broadcast option Sunday against the Pirates, who rank last in the NL in wRC+ (71) and strikeout rate (25.8%) since the All-Star break.
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Pablo Lopez still owns a solid 3.64 ERA and 1.17 WHIP on the season, but those numbers are aided by an excellent April and May. As of June 1, he has an ugly 4.86 ERA in 16 starts. It’s fair to mention that Lopez is coming off back-to-back quality starts, so he hasn’t been all bad, but he’s still been too susceptible to blowouts, as he’s been tagged out for six runs twice in the last month. Against a Braves offense that has been flying high with 118 wRC+ and .343 wOBA over the past 30 days, caution is warranted. Vanish Lopez in DFS and lower your expectations in the seasonal leagues.
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With Jason Alexander on the mound for the Brewers on Sunday, it’s a good time to target some of Arizona’s lefty bats. After all, the Milwaukee righty has been extremely vulnerable to left-handed swingers this season, delivering a bloated .394 wOBA and a cut .324/.377/.562 triple. Top prospect Corbin Carroll (22%), who hit .307/.425/.610 with 24 homers and 31 steals between Double and Triple-A, is the most exciting player on the list here. Josh Rojas (65%), Jake McCarthy (18%) and Alek Thomas (6%) are other names to watch in DFS and daily-moving leagues.
Ranking of starting pitchers for Sunday
The best hitters under 50% of the list for Sunday
The best and worst hitters of the day are generated by THE BAT X, a projection system created by Derek Carty that uses advanced methods like those used in MLB headquarters, accounting for a variety of factors including player talent, stadiums, bullpens, weather, umpires, defense, catcher’s throwing frame and much more.
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Jake Fraley (CIN, LF — 7%) vs. Jose Urena and German Marquez
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TJ Friedl (CIN, CF — 2%) vs. Jose Urena and German Marquez
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Kyle Farmer (CIN, SS — 24%) vs. Jose Urena and German Marquez
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Donovan Solano (CIN, 2B — 3%) vs. Jose Urena and German Marquez
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José Iglesias (COL, SS — 18%) in Nick Lodolo and Chase Anderson
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Nick Senzel (CIN, CF — 2%) vs. Jose Urena and German Marquez
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Sean Bouchard (COL, 1B — 0%) at Nick Lodolo and Chase Anderson
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Josh Naylor (CLE, RF — 50%) vs. George Kirby
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Jeremy Pena (HOU, SS — 43%) at Tucker Davidson
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AJ Pollock (CHW, LF — 19%) vs. Dylan Bundy
The worst hitters over 50% on the list for Sunday
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Kyle Schwarber (PHI, LF — 99%) at Carlos Rodon
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Mike Yastrzemski (SF, RF — 52%) vs. Ranger Suarez
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Thairo Estrada (SF, SS — 50%) vs. Ranger Suarez
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Michael Harris II (ATL, CF — 76%) vs. Paul Lopez
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Randy Arozarena (TB, LF — 94%) vs. Frankie Montas
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Travis d’Arnaud (ATL, C — 68%) vs. Pablo Lopez
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Chris Taylor (LAD, CF — 58%) vs. Mike Clevinger
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Vaughn Grissom (ATL, SS — 50%) vs. Pablo Lopez
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Tommy Edman (STL, 2B — 98%) vs. Marcus Stroman
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Willy Adames (MIL, SS — 90%) in Zac Gallen
The best stacks of THE BAT X for Sunday
prop of the day
frankie you ride Throws: Over/Under 16.5 (-115/-115))
PROJECTION
THE BAT sees Montas throwing an average of 19.2 shots for this matchup, while projecting him to exceed his player support total 68.1% of the time. THE BAT believes there is positive value in ON with an expected value of $31.35.
Note: Expected value is a measure of how good a bet is, taking into account how likely it is to win versus the odds the book provides. If you bet $1.00 100 times on a bet with an expected value of $25, you would win some and lose some, but in the end you would expect to make $25 profit on your $100 investment.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE ENVELOPE
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE BASS