The football continues this week with Premier League matches and more.
So which team should you bet on and what are the big stories? Our analysts are here to provide you with all the information you need.
Odds courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook.
Manchester City managed Manchester United quite well last week (6-3) with hat-tricks from Erling Haaland and Phil Foden. This time they stay with Southampton. Is there any value in betting on Foden (+150) or even Kevin De Bruyne (+175) for a goal at any time? Will City’s goals keep coming or will you dare to go below 3.5 total goals in the game (+100)?
Paul Carr: This feels like a match where City can name their score. Playing any City attacker to get a goal is reasonable, as long as he starts. I’m having a hard time seeing Southampton getting a goal given the Saints have the fifth fewest expected goals and take the third worst shots in the league this season. City have scored in every game and have scored at least 1.8 expected goals in all but one, while posting four clean sheets in eight games. City will score and Southampton will not, so I’ll take a City win to nil at -117.
Wolves sacked Bruno Lage, clearly fearful, even after just eight games, that he is not the one to prevent them from relegation. Are they right to worry? They are currently (+260) to be relegated. More specifically, Wolves are (+850) this weekend against Chelsea. Does anyone believe in some magic for the Wolves after the reshuffle?
Carr: Yes, Wolves are right to worry about relegation as they have a league-low three goals and the underlying numbers to match, with the second-fewest expected goals and second-worst shots in the league. The goalkeeper José Sa has not been bad; he just hasn’t been superhuman like he was last season. I don’t like any of the prices in this game. If I had to play something, I would look for less than 2.5 (-110). In three games under Graham Potter, Chelsea haven’t created many chances (1.2 xG per game) or conceded much (0.4 xG per game), and Wolves probably won’t change that. A win for Chelsea to nil (+103) is not a bad cry either.
Daniel Thomas: Wolves are obviously hoping that the new manager will bounce back and maybe they will get it against a Chelsea side who recorded their first Champions League win of the season. I think the win may have taken him over to Potter’s side, so I fancy a draw.
Brighton have scored eight goals in their last two EPL games and can now really try and make a statement that the team belongs in the top four of the table against Tottenham. Do you expect this to be a high score affair? Over 3.5 goals (+230)?
Carr: I like over 3.5 goals at +230, considering how open both teams’ matches have been lately. Brighton’s last two games have had at least six goals each, and four of Brighton’s seven games this season have had at least 2.9 expected goals. Tottenham’s last two games have had at least four goals, and four of the last five have had 3.4 expected goals. That’s a long way of saying that both teams are creating and conceding a lot of scoring chances. Both teams are looking for good shots on the counterattack so this could be cautious at first and then open up once a goal is scored.
Thomas: I don’t think anything involving the Spurs is a high-scoring deal right now. They just aren’t clicking, and Brighton have a very good chance of capitalizing on that. I’m going to win Brighton.
What’s your best bet for the weekend?
Carr: I am a broken record, but they give me the two teams to score in Bournemouth-Leceister City (-140). Of Leicester’s last 30 away games, in 27 both teams have scored. That trend will be put to the test by a Bournemouth side that have a league-low 51 shots (24 fewer than any other team) and 3.7 expected goals (half that of any other team) this season. But Leicester’s leaky defense should be up to the task, having allowed a league-high 22 goals this season and allowed the third-best shots in the league.
Thomas: I would keep the over in the Sevilla Athletic Club tie. Sampaoli is back in charge of the combined host with Atheltic scoring for fun. I think this will be a very entertaining high score game.