The Tracking the Tropics podcast with Bryan Norcross is now available to stream.
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It is very unusual to go through August without tropical storms being named in the Atlantic, but not unheard of. And history tells us that seasons that wait until September to get going can sometimes be quite memorable.
In 1961, for example, there was a hurricane in June in the southern Caribbean and then nothing until September, when the monster Category 4 Hurricane Carla ravaged the Texas coast. Later in the month, Category 5 Hurricane Esther weakened before making landfall in New England. A month later, Category 5 Hurricane Hattie tore through the Caribbean and hit Belize, decimating the capital city. There were only 12 named storms in 1961, but it was a very impactful hurricane season.
In 2001, there were no hurricanes until September, but we ended up with nine for the season. The point is, we still have a lot of hurricane season left.
Today, there are three systems spinning in the Atlantic, and at least two of them have a good chance of being named.
Tropical Riot #1 has been loitering east of the Caribbean islands. Forecast errors are consistently larger than normal for slow-moving, disorganized systems, so we want to make sure the forecasts are correct and the system tracks into the waters north of Puerto Rico and eastern Bahamas before to go out to sea.
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The disturbance is still trying to organize and fight a moderately dry environment surrounding the developing circulation. But the consensus from computer forecast models is that it may organize into at least one tropical depression over the next few days as it moves along a path that would keep it away from the islands.
This disturbance has a decent chance of becoming a named storm over the open ocean east of the Bahamas.
disturbance #2 it began as a non-tropical system remnant of a dying cold front. It is forecast to be stranded in a pocket of atmosphere conducive to the system organizing and intensifying. Computer forecast models indicate that it most likely meets the criteria for naming, although it could be one of those hybrid tropical/non-tropical systems we call subtropical. In any case, it would count as a named storm.
The system is moving away from the US in the open North Atlantic.
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Tropical Disturbance #3 it is the disorganized system near the Cape Verde Islands off the coast of Africa. It has a short time to organize into a tropical depression or tropical storm before it heads over cooler waters in the eastern Atlantic.
Three disturbances of the Atlantic tropics that the NHC is watching.
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Even if it was staged, it would probably be over the open ocean by then.
Neither of these systems appear to be a threat to landing on our side of the Atlantic, though we’ll keep an eye on Tropical Disturbance #1 over the weekend to be sure.
Except for dry air over the Atlantic, environmental conditions in the tropics appear conducive to tropical development. So the odds still favor a busy second half of hurricane season. Keep abreast.
FOX Weather Hurricane Specialist Bryan Norcross has a podcast, Tracking the tropics with Bryan Norcrossavailable now in FOX News Audio. You can get it on your device by by clicking here.
